Category Archives: Daily dose

Ulat Panahon – Bagyong Rolly (GONI)

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Ulat Panahon Blg 13 ukol sa Napakalakas na bagyong “Rolly” (GONI)

Ang sentro ng bagyong “Rolly” (GONI) ay tumama sa lupa sa paligid ng Bato, Catanduanes (13.60°N, 124.33°E) kaninang 4:50 ng umaga. Pagkatapos bagtasin ang kanlurang bahagi ng Catanduanes, ito ay tatawid ng Lagonoy Gulf at muling tatama sa lupa sa bandang kanluran ng Camarines Sur o hilagang bahagi ng Albay ngayong umaga. Mula rito, dadaan ito sa mga probinsya ng Camarines patungo sa CALABARZON ngayong hapon. Tinatayang lalabas ng Luzon ang bagyong “Rolly” patungo sa West Philippine Sea matapos humina mula sa pagiging napakalakas na bagyo.

Ang pagdaan ng bagyong “Rolly” ay magdudulot ng mabigat hanggang sa matindi na minsan ay may pabugso-bugsong pagulan sa mga naturang Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, at silangang bahagi ng Cagayan at Isabela.

Katamtaman hanggang sa mabigat na minsan ay pabugso-bugsong pag ulan naman ang mararanasan sa Cordillera Administrative Region, Leyte, at natitirang bahagi ng Cagayan Valley at Gitnang Luzon. Mahina hanggang sa mabigat na minsan ay mabigat na pag ulan naman ang mararanasan sa Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, at natitirang bahagi ng Luzon at Visayas. Pinag-iingat ang lahat sa mga pagbaha at biglaang pagbaha, pagguho ng lupa at pagdaloy ng lahar na dulot ng patuloy na pag ulan.

Higit na nakapamiminsalang lakas ng hangin ang mararanasan sa mga lugar kung saan nakataas ang Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals #4 at #5; napakalakas at nakapipinsalang hangin naman sa mga lugar na nasa ilalim ng TCWS #3; malakas na ihip ng hangin naman sa mga lugar na nasa ilalim ng TCWS #2 gayundin sa TCWS #1.

Ang hangin na dala ng bagyong “Rolly” ay may bilis na 225 km/h malapit sa gitna na may pabugso-bugso na bilis hanggang 280 km/h.

Huling namataan ang sentro ng bagyong “Rolly” kaninang 4:50 ng umaga malapit sa Bato, Catanduanes (13.6°N, 124.3°E).

Tinatayang pagkilos:
Makalipas ang 24 oras (Lunes ng umaga): 100 km Kanluran hilagang-kanluran ng Subic, Zambales (14.6°N, 119.4°E)
Makalipas ang 48 oras (Marts ng umaga): 545 km Kanluran ng Iba, Zambales sa labas ng Philippine Area of Resonsibility o PAR (15.0°N, 114.9°E)
Makalipas ang 72 oras (Miyerkoles ng umaga: 830 km Kanluran ng Central Luzon (labas ng PAR) (14.7°N, 112.3°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS

TCWS #5
(More than 220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)

LUZON:
Catanduanes, Albay, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Calabanga, Siruma, Tigaon, Bombon, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza, Canaman, Milaor, Naga City, Minalabac, Balatan, Bula, Pili, Ocampo, Goa, San Jose, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Baao, Nabua, Bato)

TCWS #4
(171-220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)

LUZON:
Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, Sorsogon City, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Juban, Casiguran, Magallanes), Burias Island, the central and southern portions of Quezon (Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Plaridel, Unisan, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, Catanauan, General Luna, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez), Marinduque, and the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Corcuera, Banton)

TCWS #3
(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)

LUZON:
The rest of Sorsogon, the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Masbate City, Milagros, Uson, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon) including Ticao Island, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Island, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, Olongapo City, Subic, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, Botolan, Cabangan), the central portion of Romblon (Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon, Magdiwang, San Fernando, Cajidiocan), the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Island, and the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Bongabong, Gloria, Bansud, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)

VISAYAS:
Northern Samar

TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

LUZON:
Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Romblon, and the rest of Masbate

VISAYAS:
The northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad), the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya), and the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)

TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

LUZON:
Mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Calamian Islands

Text and images translated from PAGASA-DOST

Goni vs Haiyan

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As of 7AM, typhoon Rolly (Goni) is barreling its way towards the Bicol region. It packs maximum sustained winds at 215 km/h; 130 mph (115 knots) making it a Category 5 Super typhoon according to local weather bureau PAGASA: “the center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass very close or over the Calaguas Islands tomorrow afternoon and make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon tomorrow evening.“

Satellite image of typhoon Goni

By far, Goni is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific this 2020. According to Dr Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist with the NOAA, Goni is the ‘strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history‘. Here’s a comparison to one of the more recent super typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) which devastated the country in 2013:

Haiyan (Yolanda) c 2013Goni (Rolly)
10-minute sustained: 230 km/h (145 mph)
1-minute sustained: 315 km/h (195 mph)		115 knots (215 km/h; 130 mph) (10-min mean)
155 knots (285 km/h; 180 mph) (1-min mean)
gusting to 165 knots (305 km/h; 190 mph)
Wind speed at landfall: 305 km/h (190 mph)Wind speed at landfall: 313 km/h (195 mph)
Wind speed comparison between Haiyan and Goni

How did Goni got so powerful? The same way favorable conditions gave rise to Yolanda seven years ago:

First, it formed in the open ocean, and thus no land mass prevented it from forming a symmetrical circular pattern, which helps a cyclone form and gather steam, he said.

Second, ocean temperatures are incredibly warm, topping out at 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). Just as important, the warm water also extends deep into the ocean, meaning that upwelling caused by the winds will not churn up cold water, which dampens cyclone power, McNoldy said. Tropical cyclones are basically giant heat engines, powered by the transfer of heat from the ocean to the upper atmosphere.

Third, there is very little wind shear in the area at this time, McNoldy said. Wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction with increasing altitude, tears developing hurricanes apart, and prevents them from strengthening.

In its wake, Yolanda left some 6,000 dead and Php95.5 billion ($2.2 billion USD) in damages.

Preparations have already started yesterday with preemptive evacuations in areas that lie in the storm’s path. Hopefully, it would be enough to minimize if not prevent the the loss of life. The next three days will be a tough one for all.

Below are links to official/reliable sources of information:

Myth: Filipinos lack discipline

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Three data sets utterly destroy the government’s mantra that Filipinos lack discipline and that this is the reason why COVID-19 cases – despite having the longest lock down in the world, continue to increase by the thousands each day.

A survey by the Institute of Global Health Innovation of the Imperial College London in partnership with YouGov came up with the following figures:

  • 91% wore masks when they were outside
  • 83% washed hands w/ soap & water
  • 77% avoided crowded areas
  • 61% avoided going out in general
  • 70% avoided touching objects in public

Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Report (pdf) based on “aggregated, anonymized sets of data from users who have turned on the location history setting” for their Google Account paints a similar picture covering the period of June 2 to July 14:

  • 46% decline in retail & recreation areas, including restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries and movie theaters
  • 20% decline in places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores and pharmacies
  • 25% decline in places like national parks, public beaches, marinas, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens.
  • 56% decline in places like public transport hubs such as subways, bus, and train stations.
  • 44% decline for places of work
  • 23% increase for places of residence. In other words, Filipinos stayed at home.

Marlen V. Ronquillo in his The Manila Times column talks about how a recent survey by the Asian Development Bank ‘shatter the myth that Filipinos are pasaway‘:

63.2% decrease in mobility – Filipinos stayed at home even in the congested areas where at least 10 people are crammed inside a small shanty.

A couple of days ago, Vince Dizon, the so-called ‘testing czar’ regurgitated the myth that ‘discipline’ is the key to beating COVID-19. He casually dismissed testing, contact tracing, strengthening the health care system and using available technology as essential tools against the coronavirus. It is bad enough that up until now, public health experts have taken a back seat in the government’s response against COVID-19, it’s infuriating to hear such ridiculous notions from those who are put in such a position.

I have said it before and will say it again, from the experience of other countries, COVID-19 can be beaten. The struggle only becomes more difficult – at the expense of human lives, when the government itself becomes another enemy in this pandemic.

Justice Antonio Carpio: Defending Philippine Sovereign Rights in the West Philippine Sea

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A must-watch for every Filipino, this lecture of retired Supreme Court senior associate justice Antonio Carpio eloquently demolishes the 9-Dash line claim of China over the West Philippine Sea.

Using historical and legal evidence, he presents a very strong case in which China’s claims over the Spratly islands is built on a false narrative designed to suit the Chinese government’s expansionist desires.

Through this lecture, Justice Carpio makes it easy to understand the Philippines’ historic victory against China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016. The full lecture can now be watched on Access Online’s YouTube account here.

Mozart, spaghetti, eclipses & zoonosis

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“annular solar eclipse” by kubotake is licensed under CC BY 2.0
You may be able to spot a ‘ring of fire’ eclipse this weekend link

On June 21st, at 3:45 UTC, there would be an annular solar eclipse in which the moon only partially covers the sun creating a flaming silhouette. This rare event happens once every one or two years when the moon comes in between the Earth and the sun in its farthest point in its orbit. It will be visible in northern India, southeastern Europe to northern Australia in varying degrees. Don’t forget to use the proper equipment in viewing the eclipse as looking directly at the sun could cause permanent eye damage. And no, sunglasses, x-ray films, polaroid filters, or color films won’t give you protection.

“What’s for dinner?” by Travis Isaacs is licensed under CC BY 2.0
The tangled history of spaghetti bolognese link

The spaghetti that we know – pasta noodles with red sauce often referred to as spaghetti bolognese has nothing to do with the Italian town of Bologna. Its origins can be traced to when Napoleon invaded Italy in 1796 and the Italians’ embracing French cooking. American soldiers and Italian immigrants brought it to the United States at the end of World War II. The growth and global expansion of American fast-food chains then exported it to the rest of the world.

“The Last Hours of Mozart by Henry Nelson O’Neil, 1849. Image courtesy Wikicommons” by Royal Opera House Covent Garden is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Mozart may reduce seizure frequency in people with epilepsy link

A study suggests that listening to Mozart reduces the frequency of seizures in people with epilepsy. It doesn’t say exactly what in Mozart’s music gives this benefit. Maybe music from other classical masters like Beethoven, Bach or Vivaldi would give the same positive effect. From time to time, I put on Spring from Four Seasons just to lighten up the mood and get the creative juices flowing.

“Cat” by strogoscope is licensed under CC BY 2.0
People probably caught coronavirus from minks. That’s a wake-up call to study infections in animals, researchers say. link

The consensus among experts is that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 came from bats and then jumped to humans in what is called zoonosis. Now there’s a growing body of research that suggests the sources of other pathogens may be closer to home as our domesticated animals in farms and including our pets are potential reservoirs.

Even during the SARS outbreak in 2003, it has been proven that cats and raccoons played a role in the spread of the virus in Hong Kong. Back in April, minks in Dutch fur farms got sick from SARS-CoV-2 and later passed it on to humans. Aside from pet cats and dogs, lions and tigers in zoos have also caught COVID-19. So what can be done with the certainty that there would be another outbreak? Better and widened surveillance that includes animals both domestic and wild.

“Centre of New Zealand” by Bournagain is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
What we can learn from New Zealand’s successful fight against COVID-19 link

The exact opposite of what the Duterte administration did and is doing. New Zealand may have had the advantage of a smaller population and geographic isolation, however the following steps proved more decisive:

  • The early shutdown of its borders
  • Early ramping up of diagnostic testing
  • A meticulous contact tracing system

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern did well on risk communication, explaining clearly and frequently what was happening and why. This made people feel that they were part of a communal effort to care for each other. She promoted solidarity. – Gavin Yamey, director of the Duke Center for Policy Impact in Global Health

In contrast, the Duterte government did the opposite:

Relented on imposing travel restrictions even saying that it didn’t want to offend China

Communication was all over the place: from having different officials saying one thing in the morning only to have another official contradict it later in the day.

They even had the bright idea to classify cases as “fresh” and “old” in their official reporting which only made things confusing. It didn’t hide the fact that more people are getting COVID-19 despite imposing the longest lockdown in the world, billions spent, and the available capabilities of local health experts and scientists.

Worse, Duterte’s late-night appearances on TV were laced with his signature profanities and incoherent statements were clear only one thing: threatening to jail or kill critics and naysayers.

We’re in the third month of the outbreak in the Philippines and it seems that this terrible situation will drag on for longer.